Tum Aa Gaye Ho…

India has decided. Decisively.

In the next few days we will have a new council of ministers. To most of us, the key questions now is who will be the new FM and what will be the frequency of our economic trajectory. As the dust settles down and we begin to keep calm, here are some thoughts – random, political, economic, expectations and the like.

First things first. The Congress old way of doing business is gone. There is a new (and only) way of doing business. Being compliant. Working within the law. Yes, change is difficult. Economically uneconomical. Our choices are simple. Accept the change. Or pay the penalty. You cant escape the law. Any longer. As our two winged friends in the UK are – and will soon be – discovering. Therefore, Doston, learn to navigate these new waters quickly. Else you will drown in the TsuNaMo!

So here are a few (> real) scenarios:

  • Much as Subbu and Swami would like income tax wont go away, but
  • A new income tax act will come in
  • Tax rates could should be lowered – remember lower taxes could lead to better compliance, something we have never experimented with in “socialist” India
  • GST will be streamlined – revert to its old ways, maybe?
  • Inheritance tax will (most likely) come in
  • Tax avoidance/ evasion will be extremely difficult, if not impossible

Too generic for you? Well, then prepare yourself well in the days from now to 30.09.2019. Yes. ± 130 days to go. Here is the significance – that’s the use by date for several exemptions under GST/ Tax and other laws. Therefore, be prepared for major policy changes in the coming 100 days. Do not, I repeat, do not, fret over them. Take them in your stride and move on.

The again, here are a few things that Modi1.0 can improve upon  during Modi2.0:

  • Think through every policy. Analyse how it impacts from bottom up. If you can, make it pain free for the smallest guy. {Demo and GST were 2 major policies that were blundered through}
  • Being online does not mean lesser paper work. It reduces interaction with red tape, but scan, we have too. 
  • Allow every business to upload some basic business documents onto 1 portal – and then allow the business to give access to user departments as required. This would make access hassle free. 
  • Also have a standard checklist that each department would require. And not have ad hoc requirements
  • Finally, we love first world laws. Not if applied with a third world mind set. If you could work to changing this approach, life will be smoother
  • Allow credit for everything in GST
  • Receiver’s GST number should not be necessary to be uploaded on a return. Make credit the responsibility of the receiver, not the giver. Heavy penalties on those who try to profit from this

Then again, a friend in the US sent in a wish list. Here is my response to each one of them:

Free the economy. Deregulate industries. Invite foreign investment and technologyI agree and I hope to see more sectors freed, less red tape and controls moved to a macro level
Break the Ambani Adani oligarchy.Not happening soon
Reform labor lawsDesperately needed. With this mandate, I hope we will see baby, if not large, steps towards this 
Invest in human and physical infrastructureOnce again, this has been happening, urban, developed India hasn’t experienced it

OK, so for those of you who only like logic, here is some maths, this again from 2 friend, that might explain why TsuNaMo did what it did:

“Guys all of you are not mentioning the fact that real work for the first time had been done in rural India. I have hear entire villages have voted for the BJP. The why is rural electrification, roads being built, has being available in villages and the access to banking. This was vote based on performance which has not happened in the past!   The MahaGhatbandhan was convenience based!

“This was validated by a day time painter / labourer who white washes / paints houses – said his village in the interiors of UP is now electrified, new roads, new meters, water”

This development can be explained mathematically:

Before 2014, everyone was given development at (1+0.00)365= 1.00

All Modi did was add 0.01 to the equation: (1+0.01)365= 37.78

Now multiply those by 60 and 5 respectively, and see what you get. Do the maths.

And that, as Robert Frost said, has made all that difference.

Finally I hope, by 2024, we will be a country, Where The Mind is Without Fear And The Head Is Held High…

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